10%-100% (What Sam Presti taught me.)

#82

Friend,

“I was frequently wrong, but never in doubt. I had 100% confidence in my opinion with 10% of the information. I was an expert with no expertise.” Sam Presti

I think that quote can be true for most of us.

If the quote is true, you are spending a lot of energy manufacturing your certainty, probably in something that doesn’t need your certainty or that you’re not qualified to be an expert.

And today, it seems like having a strong opinion with little information is required.

Why do we feel like we are supposed to have a strong opinion on Middle East affairs, the judicial system, race relations, the tax code, or NIL and college sports?

I love this chart of The Dunning-Kruger Effect. (I took the image from here where you can read more about it.)

Here is one of my new favorite phrases, “I haven’t had a chance to look into that very much so I don’t know what to think yet.”

It’s amazing how freeing “I don’t know” can be, and I trust that you will learn for yourself if it becomes important to you.

Love,

Aaron

P.S. Sam Presti is one of my favorite Philosophers (by that I mean, I like how he thinks about things) who also happens to be the General Manager of the OKC Thunder. He gave that quote about his strong opinion when he was 14 and wrote a letter to the editor.